Research Reports

Cognitive Assistant for Training Cost Estimators

PUBLIC RELEASE
November 2023

COMPLETED
September 2023

AUTHORS:  Dr. Daniel Selva1, Dr. Theodora Chaspari1, Dr. Alejandro Salado2
TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY 1, UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA 2

The goal of this research project is to develop a cognitive assistant to support training of new cost estimators in the Department of Defense (DoD). A cognitive assistant (CA) is defined here as an artificial intelligence (AI) tool, usually with a natural language interface, that augments human intellect in a specific task by retrieving and processing relevant information from multiple information sources and providing it to the user at the right time. It also has the capability to learn and adapt to the user and problem at hand.

Cost estimation is a complex iterative process consisting of various steps: gathering the required information, selecting an overall strategy and one or more existing models, developing new models if needed (including calibration and validation), performing the estimate, and conducting sensitivity analyses as appropriate. There are challenges for beginner cost estimators in each of those steps, including dealing with incomplete datasets, appropriately assessing the performance of new models, projecting beyond historical ranges of validity, adequately reporting the level of uncertainty around a point estimate, understanding how to use joint cost-schedule distributions, etc.

Currently, the training of new cost estimators is done primarily through traditional instruction in live classrooms, and thus it is a time-consuming process. Traditional instruction typically implies reduced opportunities for hands-on learning opportunities, which are known to improve learning. This type of instruction is also not tailored to each individual, so the pace can be too fast for some trainees and too slow for others. The use of CAs can allow for more interactive and tailored instruction for each individual and area, as demonstrated with intelligent tutoring systems in other areas of education (Corbett et al., 1997).